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Оценка воздействия изменения климата на здания, сооружения и инфраструктуру в российских регионах...

Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost

Dmitry A Streletskiy6,1,5, Luis J Suter1, Nikolay I Shiklomanov1, Boris N Porfiriev2 and Dmitry O Eliseev3,4

Published 1 February 2019 • © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd Environmental Research Letters, Volume 14, Number 2Focus on Northern Eurasia in the Global Earth and Human Systems: Changes, Interactions, and Sustainable Societal DevelopmentCitation Dmitry A Streletskiy et al 2019 Environ. Res. Lett. 14 025003


Abstract

Russian regions containing permafrost play an important role in the Russian economy, containing vast reserves of natural resources and hosting large-scale infrastructure to facilitate these resources' exploitation. Rapidly changing climatic conditions are a major concern for the future economic development of these regions. This study examines the extent to which infrastructure and housing are affected by permafrost in Russia and estimates the associated value of these assets. An ensemble of climate projections is used as a forcing to a permafrost-geotechnical model, in order to estimate the cost of buildings and infrastructure affected by permafrost degradation by mid-21st century under RCP 8.5 scenario. The total value of fixed assets on permafrost was estimated at 248.6 bln USD. Projected climatic changes will affect 20% of structures and 19% of infrastructure assets, costing 16.7 bln USD and 67.7 bln USD respectively to mitigate. The total cost of residential real estate on permafrost was estimated at 52.6 bln USD, with 54% buildings affected by significant permafrost degradation by the mid-21st century. The paper discusses the variability in climate-change projections and the ability of Russia's administrative regions containing permafrost to cope with projected climate-change impacts. The study can be used in land use planning and to promote the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for addressing the climate-change impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure and housing.

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